Most diplomats agree that it is only a matter of time before Azeri tanks cross the Armenian frontier yet again in what could be the final stand for the Christian nation’s statehood.
A series of alliances involving Turkey, Russia, and Israel have granted Azeri elites, under the kleptocratic government of the Aliyev clan, the battlefield advantage against Armenian forces with the previously contested Nagorno-Karabakh region snapped up by Azeri forces the previous 3 years.
More worryingly for the West, Azerbaijan’s immense oil wealth, often bootlegging sanctioned Russian hydrocarbons, has given the autocracy inordinate lobbying power abroad, often employing sophisticated PR firms and retired politicians from European cabinets.
Accused of whitewashing ethnic cleansing through the creation of a smoke and mirrors world of front “environmental” NGOs as it imports Israeli weaponry and Turkish muscle Azerbaijan felt so defiant with regards to the rules-based world order that it was able to engineer a rebellion on the French Island of New Caledonia in a warning against any Western defence of Armenia.
In Ireland, our domestic Azeri lobby comes in the form of former FF Senator Terry Leyden who has played off Azerbaijan’s naked aggression towards their neighbours as being equivalent to Irish republican irredentism towards the Six Counties.
Leyden’s exact words on the Nagorno-Karabakh war were: “They reclaimed their rightful territory, which is their right. If east Donegal, was occupied by the British or the coloniser, what would we do?”
Terry Leyden, a former FF junior minister and senator who ostensibly retired from politics in 2020, but has quickly found himself at the heart of Ireland’s relationship with Azerbaijan. Sean Ó Fearghaíl the now former Ceann Comhairle too held a private meeting with the Azeri delegation, welcoming them warmly into Dáil Éireann.
Leyden had a meeting with the Ceann Comhairle and the Ambassador of Azerbaijan. It is remarkable that two politicians may undermine Irish foreign policy to their own benefit in a move that would see them both investigated for corruption in any other country.
Leyden held a series of private meetings with the Azeri delegates, one of which included the Azeri Ambassador to London, and the former Ceann Comhairle. The meeting coincided with a meeting of the Council of Europe in Dublin, which included Armenian representatives, who subsequently met with the Ceann Comhairle, likely to express disapproval of his conduct.
With the rules-based global order destined to disintegrate further in the next Trump administration, the right of conquest to become an increasing norm in geopolitical affairs in Ireland in so far as it has a global voice has a strategic and moral need to safeguard the Armenian state.
From Berlin to Baku a new Turkic power is in formation. One which will haunt our grandchildren will have Terry Leyden and company to thank for opening the door to
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