FF-FG’s New Mudguard? Rural Independents and GE24

The dust has settled after the election of 29 November 2024 General Election. 

While in some corners the failure of any Nationalist candidate to be elected has resulted in fighting and the blame game, this only serves to highlight how solipsistic the Nationalist scene in Ireland is. 

The election results show some positive trends. Furthermore, a warning must be issued against destructive responses to the result.

The Fianna Fáil – Fine Gael coalition has been returned, without the Green Party. The new kids in town are independents from the Regional Group.

Frequently, the Greens have been attacked for their anti-rural policies, but this is not especially of interest to me. It was clear that on immigration and social issues, the Greens were being allowed to oversee many of the worst aspects of the previous government’s policy.

Overall, I can find some good words to say about the new government.

Calamity Avoided – Labour out, Independents in

A possible outcome of the election was that the Labour Party could sneak into coalition with Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael. It may have been Ivanna Bacik’s last opportunity to become a minister, probably Justice Minister. 

Some in Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael would’ve favoured Labour entering government, as it would’ve given them a convenient and reliable mudguard for the inevitable anti-government vote at the next election. In addition, Labour would’ve rammed through many of the socially liberal policies that the hierarchies of FF and FG desire.

The leadership of Micheál Martin and his second-in-command Seán Dorgan are genuine liberals who desperately want to escape the image of Fianna Fáil as irresponsible, conservative and populist – they’ve aligned the party with Renew in the EU parliament and hammered home its liberal credentials. They kicked out Bertie Ahern and have tried hard to change the party’s “image”.

However, the makeup of the new Fianna Fáil parliamentary party tilts towards the older school of conservative populism. We saw the return of TDs like Éamon Scanlon (Sligo) and Pat “The Cope” Gallagher (Donegal) – figures I would have written off as has-beens. Similarly, Fianna Fáil’s celebrity candidate strategy – which worked effectively in the June European elections – fell flat

in November’s general election, with Gráinne Seoige performing poorly in Galway West, Michelle O’Neill doing miserably badly in Wexford, and Alison Comyn also suffering a defeat in Louth. In Galway West, the Fianna Fáil seat is now held by John Connolly – who gave a pro-life commitment.

From Fianna Fáil’s perspective, it must now reckon with conservative backbenchers, which was a point against Labour entering the coalition. Similarly, the shortfall from a majority was so slight that to abandon the strategy of courting sympathetic independents in favour of Labour would’ve infuriated Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael TDs who are chomping at the bit for a ministry. Any Labour minister would’ve been at the expense of a FF/FG minister, and this would’ve stuck in the throat of any ambitious FF/FG deputy.

“Mature Centrist Leadership“

The now inevitable government led by Micheál Martin, composed of FF/FG and supported by independents from the Regional Group, will provide steady leadership for five years. The return of Martin as Taoiseach is also a welcome development, in this author’s view. Martin is a skilled politician and statesman. Varadkar was an embarrassing leader who was like a fish out of water at international summits and events (remember the puerile behaviour of him and his boyfriend at the coronation of Charles III?). Harris was an improvement on Varadkar, but he still fell short.

The return of a “safe pair of hands” in the form of Martin is necessary, especially as Ireland faces down the current Israeli propaganda offensive. Ireland’s stand on Palestine, almost a lonely voice in the west, is something to be proud of. It reflects our sovereignty on the international stage.

The new Irish government is essentially non-ideological. It is a return to the politics of the “pragmatic centre” which the late Charles J. Haughey touted.

The government is well positioned to manoeuvre the twists and turns that’ll be thrown up by the incoming Trump administration. The new US administration will inevitably have consequences for the Irish economy, and a major rethink of the FDI-centred Irish economy is required. In addition, international cooperation will be more deals-focused. Bilateralism will outpace the liberal consensus-based agreements. A centrist Irish government will be well-positioned to navigate this new dichotomy.

The Left Blunted

As everyone knows, Sinn Féin suffered a large setback and lost 100,000 first-preference votes in 2020. Their new task is more difficult due to greater competition on the opposition benches from the Social Democrats and Labour. These parties are going to pursue a centre-left/liberal critique of the government. Sinn Féin must find its own identity and cannot just be seen as Soc Dems lite. They need to enter a period of soul-searching and shouldn’t just race to the centre-left to find their answers.

Solidarity-People Before Profit was chastened by the recent elections. Mick Barry and Gino Kenny lost their seats. Now with Richard Boyd Barrett (SWP), Ruth Coppinger (SP) and Paul Murphy (RISE/PBP), the Trotskyist Alliance is now evenly split between three different tendencies. Their decision to tail Sinn Féin by calling for a “Left Government” and endorse Vote Left Transfer Left has left them looking to the outside world distinctly unrevolutionary. They appear to just be slightly more left-wing than Labour and the Social Democrats. They’ll also need a rethink of their strategy and public image going forward.

A good news item from the election is that Aontú and Independent Ireland have now respectively qualified for state funding. This is a considerable sum of money which is now available to essentially conservative parties.

A Foot in the Door:  Nationalists and GE24

The election has been described as a drubbing for the “far-right”. But this is only the case if one expects a breakthrough. In truth, many “far-right” nationalist candidates polled respectably and are now in a good position to increase their votes in the years ahead.

To give a case study, in 2020 Aontú’s Paul Lawless polled 4% FPV in Mayo. In 2024, he polled 6.3% FPV, benefitted from transfers, and is now a TD. In 2024, several Nationalist candidates polled over or around the 4% mark – e.g. Gavin Pepper (5.6% FPV), Malachy Steenson (4.9% FPV), Stephen Redmond (3.7% FPV). None of these votes are at all bad. In each case, they’re strong performances and indicate a possibility for future success.

A little perspective and long-term thinking is needed. Young candidates also polled well on this occasion and presumably will have several election cycles ahead of them upon which they can continue to improve their votes, e.g. Patrick Quinlan (mid-30s) and Yan Mac Oireachtaigh (early 20s).

Conclusion

The government will be an administration of the pragmatic centre. This is needed to meet the challenges ahead, particularly the rethink of Ireland’s economic base which will be required due to the consequences of the incoming Trump administration.

On the opposition benches, Sinn Féin will now need to compete with other parties to make its message clear: this will require it to refine its message and ensure it doesn’t just sound like an echo of Labour or the Social Democrats. The natural path is for Sinn Féin to emphasise voter-friendly themes of sovereignty, fairness, responsibility, and security.

While the immigration issue is less hot now than it was in June, all parties have played catch-up on this issue and will not allow themselves to be pinned as “weak” on immigration. There’ll be efforts to tighten up immigration and asylum policies. For many readers, this won’t be adequate, but virtually all serious parties are more sensitive about the immigration issue now and will not want to be seen as irresponsibly bleeding heart.

The Nationalist parties and independents were by no means laughed out of town. The path forward here is by focusing on increasing the support for popular local personalities on the ground and nationally by working on decentralised alliances and cooperation arrangements. The day of the exclusivist top-heavy right-wing party seems to be fading.

We’re evidently moving into a new political dynamic in the years to come. Some people will realise this and adapt accordingly, while others will be left behind and will stay out in the cold.