Sinn Fein and the Risk of Post-Populist Fatigue

Speculation as to Sinn Fein’s utility as a party of government and its actions therein are prevalent. The question as to whether a Sinn Féin government could fulfil its rhetorical election promises is a significant one, which may have repercussions on the Irish electoral landscape for years to come.

Sinn Féin’s reputation is currently that of an anti-establishment party, ostensibly a left-populist party, it too, subscribing to the prevailing social, cultural, and political narratives held by the coalition government – where it differs, however, is in incessant criticism of government policy, republican legacy and engagement with local constituencies.

With the current polling data showing Sinn Fein sitting at an astronomical 37% of the vote in comparison to the 24.5% it received in 2020, the likelihood of a Sinn Féin government has increased significantly. 

In contrast, Fine Gael has dramatically dropped from 20.9% to 15% with Fianna Fáil facing serious generational issues.

The next general election, scheduled no later than February 2025, means that the current government has another two years in power to contend with its current unpopularity, though the chances that Fine Gael can save its electoral popularity are slim, Fianna Fáil may make it out of public dissatisfaction by the skin of its teeth.  

Presuming Sinn Féin get into power, and fail to deliver on their promises, rather than pivot to rightist alternatives, there is an unconsidered possibility that a post-populist fatigue may set in in parts of Sinn Féin’s voter base. Sinn Féin has thus far used populist anti-establishment rhetorical techniques to engage with voters dissatisfied with the current electoral system, to great success. 

The success of Sinn Féin voter engagement may backfire on it should it fail to deliver on its promises in government, as a considerable proportion of its electorate would become disillusioned with the party’s capabilities. It is here where a post-populist electoral fatigue may diminish Sinn Féin’s popularity among voters.

Post-populist fatigue, however, may set it through either success or failure, as noted by the success of the Brexit vote in 2016, populism in Britain experienced a recession as the mainstream political parties adapted themselves to the new anti-EU status quo. 

This trend, similarly, occurred in the United States with respect to the policies of former President Donald Trump. After achieving their political purposes and stated goals, aspects of their policies seem into the establishment and the party diminishes in electoral popularity.

If Sinn Fein’s political purpose in the arena of Irish politics is to solve the housing crisis, even should it succeed, the party will be left scrambling to re-define itself as a party of successful government, and therefore be prone to greater criticism and controversy from the likely future Fine Gael opposition.

However, as a consequence of its government policies on the increasingly controversial issues of government policy towards gender ideology and the mass influx of bogus asylum seekers into Ireland maintain their relevance, room for disruption remains within the policy debate of Irish politics.

However, it is also noted by political scientists Roger Eatwell and Matthew Goodwin, that there is opportunism in the face of populist failures for establishment parties to adopt populist rhetorical techniques and policies to maintain their vote share and popular appeal.

Amidst the decline of Fine Gael, a party whose leadership of the current government seems to take the brunt of most criticisms, whereas Fianna Fáil in the popular imagination remains marginally less sullied, in part as a consequence of its rural appeal.

It is presumed that a post-Sinn Féin government would bring a fresh gust of wind into the sails of right-wing populism in Ireland, the risk however, is rather than that their voter base become entirely disengaged from the political system as a whole, rather than being anti-establishment with intent to change, but that a sentiment of despondence or apathy informs people’s mentality towards voting.

Equally so, a scenario is not impossible in which Fine Gael or Fianna Fáil mimic populist rhetoric while in opposition, and seek to define themselves within the context of the prevailing political controversies of Ireland in 2025. 

Should such an unlikely event happen to pass such as Fine Gael counter-signalling asylum issues and liberal social theory, the foolish comedy of Irish politics would have truly reached a new peak.